$a fracked planet$

$a fracked planet$

One starting point in any analysis of failed countries is the theory of Max Weber, the father of social science. The region to the south is dominated by warring clans, but even here some aspects of normal life, such as mobile telephone networks, manage to survive. A part of the country, called Somaliland, is more or less autonomous and stable-and another bit, Puntland, is relatively calm, although it is the source of much piracy. And even here, the territory is not completely ungoverned. Few states have completely failed, except perhaps for Somalia. That said, the interplay of these factors is hard to describe, and the very definition of failed states and ungoverned spaces is anything but simple. Weak governments, in turn, are less able to stop corruption and the production and smuggling of arms and drugs, which may in turn help finance warlords, insurgents and terrorists. Conflict may impoverish populations, increase the availability of weapons and debilitate rulers. Misrule, violence, corruption, forced migration, poverty, illiteracy and disease can all reinforce each other. Western intelligence agencies say that, with the recent improvement in security in Iraq (a totalitarian state that became a failed state only after the American-led invasion), the world's jihadists now prefer to head for Pakistan, Somalia or Yemen. After the American-led intervention in 2001, both have rebated themselves across the border in Pakistan's lawless tribal regions, from where they wage a growing insurgency in southern Afghanistan, destabilise Pakistan and plot attacks against Western targets around the world. Even China has felt the need to send warships to the Gulf of Aden to protect its shipping.Īfghanistan, too, is often seen as a classic example of the perils of collapsing states: acute poverty and years of civil war led to the rise of the Taliban and allowed al-Qaeda to turn into a global menace. The waters off the Somali coast, moreover, have become one of the prime zones of piracy at sea, disrupting shipping through the Suez Canal. It supported Ethiopia's military invasion in 2006 to defeat the Islamist militias that had taken power in Mogadishu (arguably causing even more chaos) and is now backing an African peacekeeping mission for the same reasons.

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In recent years, America has again been active in that region, carrying out air strikes in Somalia against suspected jihadist camps. Take the case of Somalia: America sent troops there in 1992 to help the United Nations stave off a humanitarian catastrophe, but the armed chaos of Mogadishu soon drove it out. Western intervention is now justified in the name of fighting terrorism, not just of altruism. But since the attacks on America in September 2001 such places have increasingly been seen as a threat to the entire world. At first, zones of war and chaos were seen primarily as threats to the people living within them, or not far away. Strategists have worried about failing states ever since the end of the cold war. “It was not the well-organised Persian Empire that brought about the fall of Rome, but the barbarians,” he writes.

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In his view, chaos in critical parts of the world must be watched carefully. He splits the world into three zones: Hobbesian or “pre-modern” regions of chaos areas ruled effectively by modern nation-states and zones of “postmodern” co-operation where national sovereignty is being voluntarily dissolved, as in the European Union. It opines that: “Neighbours who are engaged in violent conflict, weak states where organised crime flourishes, dysfunctional societies or exploding population growth on its borders all pose problems for Europe.”Ī rather precise taxonomy is offered by Robert Cooper, a British diplomat and Eurocrat, in his book, “The Breaking of Nations”. Similarly, the European Union's declared security strategy sees state failure as an “alarming” phenomenon. To the chagrin of old-school sceptics, nation-building is now an integral part of American strategy. Large chunks of its language could have been issued by bleeding-heart aid agencies or the United Nations: it speaks of the need to “build the capacity of fragile or vulnerable partners” and to address “local and regional conflicts” that exacerbate tensions and encourage drug-smuggling, gun-running and other illegality.

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The penning of that document was overseen by the defence secretary, Robert Gates, who will remain in charge of defence policy under Barack Obama. “Ungoverned, undergoverned, misgoverned and contested areas” offer fertile grounds for terrorists and other nefarious groups, says the Pentagon's National Defence Strategy, issued last year. In America these days, defence planners say they worry more about weak states, even non-states, than about strong ones.

$a fracked planet$

A fracked planet